Comments on: Sold half of Ctrip http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/ Chinese, Linguistics, Science, Cultural Observations and whatever else I feel like writing about Sat, 30 Aug 2008 01:04:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Mark http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-101625 Mark Tue, 06 Nov 2007 20:30:41 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-101625 Travelyan, I appreciate such a detailed comment from someone with experience using Ctrip. Their strength is definitely the domestic market. From what I've read one of the biggest drivers in their growth is their vast web of connections with hotels, and various traveler-oriented services throughout China. The hassle of trying to navigate through that mess in unfamiliar cities is a big reason why so many Chinese people rely on Ctrip. I suppose airlines could do the same, but it's also possible they'll end up paying Ctrip for access to their database. I don't have the kinds of first hand experience with Ctrip that you do, but I would be <i>shocked</i> if they didn't manage at least 25% annualized sales growth over the next 5 years. They have a sizable moat separating them from their closest competitor, eLong. That said, I did still sell half my position. Travelyan,

I appreciate such a detailed comment from someone with experience using Ctrip. Their strength is definitely the domestic market. From what I’ve read one of the biggest drivers in their growth is their vast web of connections with hotels, and various traveler-oriented services throughout China. The hassle of trying to navigate through that mess in unfamiliar cities is a big reason why so many Chinese people rely on Ctrip. I suppose airlines could do the same, but it’s also possible they’ll end up paying Ctrip for access to their database.

I don’t have the kinds of first hand experience with Ctrip that you do, but I would be shocked if they didn’t manage at least 25% annualized sales growth over the next 5 years. They have a sizable moat separating them from their closest competitor, eLong. That said, I did still sell half my position.

]]> By: trevelyan http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100960 trevelyan Sat, 03 Nov 2007 20:50:32 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100960 Hmmm... I remember Brendan having a really bad experience with CTrip botching a trip of his. I also tried using them a while ago to book a ticket to Australia this Christmas, but *could not use their site*. Their system kept insisting there were "no available tickets", leaving me baffled as to whether the flights on those days were FULL, or whether there simply weren't flights on that particular day. Every error message invited me to call them at their call center, to book through a person. In which case what is the point of having a website anyway? Echo insisted that they DID have tickets, but were holding them off-market to auction off at higher prices later. I ended up booking directly on Quantus, and for less money than I was expecting (prepared) to pay (7000 round trip). So while ctrip might be doing decent work domestically, their international airline sales are embarassing. The experience also made me skeptical of the entire e-business. As airlines get better at online sales and judging customer's price thresholds, there's little reason for these sorts of discount distributors to exist. They're an online extension of an outmoded business (travel agencies as third-party distributors) and airlines will eventually sidestep them. Hmmm… I remember Brendan having a really bad experience with CTrip botching a trip of his. I also tried using them a while ago to book a ticket to Australia this Christmas, but *could not use their site*. Their system kept insisting there were “no available tickets”, leaving me baffled as to whether the flights on those days were FULL, or whether there simply weren’t flights on that particular day.

Every error message invited me to call them at their call center, to book through a person. In which case what is the point of having a website anyway? Echo insisted that they DID have tickets, but were holding them off-market to auction off at higher prices later.

I ended up booking directly on Quantus, and for less money than I was expecting (prepared) to pay (7000 round trip). So while ctrip might be doing decent work domestically, their international airline sales are embarassing. The experience also made me skeptical of the entire e-business. As airlines get better at online sales and judging customer’s price thresholds, there’s little reason for these sorts of discount distributors to exist. They’re an online extension of an outmoded business (travel agencies as third-party distributors) and airlines will eventually sidestep them.

]]> By: Mark http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100641 Mark Fri, 02 Nov 2007 08:02:38 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100641 Unfortunately, I wasn't genius enough to buy <a href="http://toshuo.com/2005/baidu-valuations-and-verse/" rel="nofollow">Baidu back when I analyzed it</a>. I procrastinated until the price had doubled and then I wasn't sure if it was still worth it. All in all my investments have been doing great, but Baidu is definitely the one that got away. I still like Suntech the company, but I'm not sure about the price anymore. It's doubled since I almost bought it. Unfortunately, I wasn’t genius enough to buy Baidu back when I analyzed it. I procrastinated until the price had doubled and then I wasn’t sure if it was still worth it. All in all my investments have been doing great, but Baidu is definitely the one that got away.

I still like Suntech the company, but I’m not sure about the price anymore. It’s doubled since I almost bought it.

]]> By: Sonia http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100574 Sonia Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:19:11 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100574 Go Mark Go! ;) Go Mark Go!

;)

]]> By: James http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100559 James Thu, 01 Nov 2007 22:11:33 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/sold-half-of-ctrip/#comment-100559 You're a fucking genius. Apple, Baidu, Chipotle, Ctrip... I put almost my whole savings into Baidu when you recommended it a couple years ago. That 10K is now worth over 50K and I also bought some other companies you've analyzed like Ctrip and Chipotle. Kicking myself for not getting into Gigamedia though. What do you think about Suntech? You mentioned it twice but you haven't written a purchase post yet. You’re a fucking genius. Apple, Baidu, Chipotle, Ctrip…

I put almost my whole savings into Baidu when you recommended it a couple years ago. That 10K is now worth over 50K and I also bought some other companies you’ve analyzed like Ctrip and Chipotle. Kicking myself for not getting into Gigamedia though.

What do you think about Suntech? You mentioned it twice but you haven’t written a purchase post yet.

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