Comments on: The Fall of the Taiwan Dollar http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/ Chinese, Linguistics, Science, Cultural Observations and whatever else I feel like writing about Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:53:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Mark http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-106086 Mark Sun, 18 Nov 2007 19:19:15 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-106086 Everyone, I appreciate everyone's long and thought-out comments. Please try to stay on topic, though. Any further discussion about about the overall condition of the Taiwanese economy or the situation of the average worker should be made to one of these posts: <a href="http://toshuo.com/2007/economy-taiwan-vs-korea-2000-2006/" rel="nofollow">Economy: Taiwan vs. Korea 2000-2006</a> <a href="http://toshuo.com/2007/salary-stagnation-the-reason-taiwans-middle-class-suffers/" rel="nofollow">Salary Stagnation: The reason Taiwan's middle class suffers</a> Everyone, I appreciate everyone’s long and thought-out comments. Please try to stay on topic, though. Any further discussion about about the overall condition of the Taiwanese economy or the situation of the average worker should be made to one of these posts:

Economy: Taiwan vs. Korea 2000-2006
Salary Stagnation: The reason Taiwan’s middle class suffers

]]> By: Mark http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-106075 Mark Sun, 18 Nov 2007 19:06:49 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-106075 Michael, you could always say something like "Aha! So, <i>that's</i> what you were talking about!" Michael, you could always say something like “Aha! So, that’s what you were talking about!”

]]> By: Michael Turton http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-105499 Michael Turton Sat, 17 Nov 2007 11:23:18 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-105499 <b>It seems that as we get closer to elections anyone saying that the economy is anything but rosy is criticized in some circles as a politically motivated attack on the DPP. # 2 Mark Says: November 12th, 2007 at 3:06 am Yes, it does.</b> LOL. Not much point in responding here. Thanks, Karl. Michael It seems that as we get closer to elections anyone saying that the economy is anything but rosy is criticized in some circles as a politically motivated attack on the DPP.
# 2 Mark Says:
November 12th, 2007 at 3:06 am
Yes, it does.

LOL. Not much point in responding here. Thanks, Karl.

Michael

]]> By: Mark http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-105180 Mark Fri, 16 Nov 2007 12:38:24 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-105180 Karl, I have to say I'm at a bit of a loss. You said we were in agreement about GDP statistics in comment #10, but that the currency data was "cherry picked". I put up over ten years of continuous currency data, and then you started arguing about the 2000-2006 GDP data and repeatedly submitting 2006 single-year currency adjusted estimates (which are obviously going to be different than 6-year data sets). I offered to spend my own time to incorporate 2000-2006 GDP data you send me from other sources (since you seemed to be unsatisfied with the IMF's figures). Instead of doing any of this, or making any sort of argument to support your wild claim that the TWD hasn't fallen against the KRW, you've just copied the CIA's entire explanation of what nominal GDP is, with no commentary of your own. We all know the difference between nominal and PPP GDP. What does this add to the discussion? It looks like spam. Karl, I have to say I’m at a bit of a loss. You said we were in agreement about GDP statistics in comment #10, but that the currency data was “cherry picked”. I put up over ten years of continuous currency data, and then you started arguing about the 2000-2006 GDP data and repeatedly submitting 2006 single-year currency adjusted estimates (which are obviously going to be different than 6-year data sets). I offered to spend my own time to incorporate 2000-2006 GDP data you send me from other sources (since you seemed to be unsatisfied with the IMF’s figures).

Instead of doing any of this, or making any sort of argument to support your wild claim that the TWD hasn’t fallen against the KRW, you’ve just copied the CIA’s entire explanation of what nominal GDP is, with no commentary of your own. We all know the difference between nominal and PPP GDP. What does this add to the discussion? It looks like spam.

]]> By: Karl http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-105166 Karl Fri, 16 Nov 2007 10:34:18 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-105166 <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/notesanddefs.html" rel="nofollow">This entry gives the gross domestic product (GDP) or value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year. A nation's GDP at offical exchange rates (OER) is the home-currency-denominated annual GDP figure divided by the bilateral average US exchange rate with that country in that year. The measure is simple to compute and gives a precise measure of the value of output. Many economists prefer this measure when gauging the economic power an economy maintains vis-à-vis its neighbors, judging that an exchange rate captures the purchasing power a nation enjoys in the international marketplace. Official exchange rates, however, can be artifically fixed and/or subject to manipulation - resulting in claims of the country having an under- or over-valued currency - and are not necessarily the equivalent of a market-determined exchange rate. Moreover, even if the official exchange rate is market-determined, market exchange rates are frequently established by a relatively small set of goods and services (the ones the country trades) and may not capture the value of the larger set of goods the country produces. <b>Furthermore, OER-converted GDP is not well suited to comparing domestic GDP over time, since appreciation/depreciation from one year to the next will make the OER GDP value rise/fall regardless of whether home-currency-denominated GDP changed.</b></a> This entry gives the gross domestic product (GDP) or value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year. A nation’s GDP at offical exchange rates (OER) is the home-currency-denominated annual GDP figure divided by the bilateral average US exchange rate with that country in that year. The measure is simple to compute and gives a precise measure of the value of output. Many economists prefer this measure when gauging the economic power an economy maintains vis-à-vis its neighbors, judging that an exchange rate captures the purchasing power a nation enjoys in the international marketplace. Official exchange rates, however, can be artifically fixed and/or subject to manipulation - resulting in claims of the country having an under- or over-valued currency - and are not necessarily the equivalent of a market-determined exchange rate. Moreover, even if the official exchange rate is market-determined, market exchange rates are frequently established by a relatively small set of goods and services (the ones the country trades) and may not capture the value of the larger set of goods the country produces. Furthermore, OER-converted GDP is not well suited to comparing domestic GDP over time, since appreciation/depreciation from one year to the next will make the OER GDP value rise/fall regardless of whether home-currency-denominated GDP changed.

]]> By: James http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-105148 James Fri, 16 Nov 2007 10:03:21 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-105148 This is crazy. I think you made their brains explode by looking at more than a single year. Consumers of those economic reports are just as short-sighted as the idiots who focus on hourly stock updates. Trying to look at the bigger picture is more than most media (or bloggers) can handle. This is crazy. I think you made their brains explode by looking at more than a single year. Consumers of those economic reports are just as short-sighted as the idiots who focus on hourly stock updates. Trying to look at the bigger picture is more than most media (or bloggers) can handle.

]]> By: Mark http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-104806 Mark Thu, 15 Nov 2007 12:29:56 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-104806 <blockquote>When we use the NT$ exchange rate, which we admit is an artifact of political decisions and not of economic forces, to calculate GDP growth, we get a lower number than GDP growth calculated by purchasing power.</blockquote> You must realize it isn't as simple as that. Economic forces have an influence. If they didn't, then governments could arbitrarily create wealth without limit via currency manipulation. FYI, I <i>do</i> disagree with the government's weak TWD policy. <blockquote> As a favor, could you do one of those neat % against U.S. dollar graphs charting the NT$ with the Thai Baht, the Philippine Peso, and the Indonesian Rupiah? If Taiwan is a developing Asian economy as you assert, then it would be nice to compare the currency against other developing Asian economies. You could throw in the Sing $ while yer at it.</blockquote> Sure, I can do that. I don't really consider those to be major world currencies, but why not? I haven't looked into the long term growth trends of Indonesia or Thailand, but I'd bet that they have been growing at a faster clip than Taiwan has since they're less developed, whereas Singapore might have put up relatively weak growth. Give me a week or two. I'll pull the data on them and write it up with both real GDP and currency data.

When we use the NT$ exchange rate, which we admit is an artifact of political decisions and not of economic forces, to calculate GDP growth, we get a lower number than GDP growth calculated by purchasing power.

You must realize it isn’t as simple as that. Economic forces have an influence. If they didn’t, then governments could arbitrarily create wealth without limit via currency manipulation. FYI, I do disagree with the government’s weak TWD policy.

As a favor, could you do one of those neat % against U.S. dollar graphs charting the NT$ with the Thai Baht, the Philippine Peso, and the Indonesian Rupiah? If Taiwan is a developing Asian economy as you assert, then it would be nice to compare the currency against other developing Asian economies. You could throw in the Sing $ while yer at it.

Sure, I can do that. I don’t really consider those to be major world currencies, but why not? I haven’t looked into the long term growth trends of Indonesia or Thailand, but I’d bet that they have been growing at a faster clip than Taiwan has since they’re less developed, whereas Singapore might have put up relatively weak growth. Give me a week or two. I’ll pull the data on them and write it up with both real GDP and currency data.

]]> By: links for 2007-11-15 | bent http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-104669 links for 2007-11-15 | bent Thu, 15 Nov 2007 08:28:10 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-104669 [...] The Fall of the Taiwan Dollar Doubting to Shuo analyzes the poor performance of the Taiwan dollar over the last several year. The U.S. peg strikes again… (tags: Economy) [...] [...] The Fall of the Taiwan Dollar Doubting to Shuo analyzes the poor performance of the Taiwan dollar over the last several year. The U.S. peg strikes again… (tags: Economy) [...]

]]> By: Karl http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-104626 Karl Thu, 15 Nov 2007 05:38:00 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-104626 Let me clarify one more point. Points. Or maybe pint. When we use the NT$ exchange rate, which we admit is an artifact of political decisions and not of economic forces, to calculate GDP growth, we get a lower number than GDP growth calculated by purchasing power. We take the lower number and declare the last six years an economic disaster. Wouldn't it be easier to just disagree with the government's policy of not allowing the NT$ to appreciate? As a favor, could you do one of those neat % against U.S. dollar graphs charting the NT$ with the Thai Baht, the Philippine Peso, and the Indonesian Rupiah? If Taiwan is a developing Asian economy as you assert, then it would be nice to compare the currency against other developing Asian economies. You could throw in the Sing $ while yer at it. P.S.: Your blog is the first Google hit for Taiwan GDP 2000 2006. Heh. Let me clarify one more point. Points. Or maybe pint.

When we use the NT$ exchange rate, which we admit is an artifact of political decisions and not of economic forces, to calculate GDP growth, we get a lower number than GDP growth calculated by purchasing power. We take the lower number and declare the last six years an economic disaster.

Wouldn’t it be easier to just disagree with the government’s policy of not allowing the NT$ to appreciate?

As a favor, could you do one of those neat % against U.S. dollar graphs charting the NT$ with the Thai Baht, the Philippine Peso, and the Indonesian Rupiah? If Taiwan is a developing Asian economy as you assert, then it would be nice to compare the currency against other developing Asian economies. You could throw in the Sing $ while yer at it.

P.S.: Your blog is the first Google hit for Taiwan GDP 2000 2006. Heh.

]]> By: Mark http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/comment-page-1/#comment-104579 Mark Thu, 15 Nov 2007 03:18:44 +0000 http://toshuo.com/2007/the-fall-of-the-taiwan-dollar/#comment-104579 As long as it's from a source that looks at multiple countries and has no specific political affiliation within Taiwan, it should be fine. Actually, the sources you've already used would be fine if you can find data in USD or International Dollars back to 2000. The Economist intelligence unit and the Australian government are both credible. As long as it’s from a source that looks at multiple countries and has no specific political affiliation within Taiwan, it should be fine. Actually, the sources you’ve already used would be fine if you can find data in USD or International Dollars back to 2000. The Economist intelligence unit and the Australian government are both credible.

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