The Sky is Falling!

July 29th, 2007 by Mark

Whenever the stock market takes a hit, some people (and lolcats) act like the SKY IS FALLING. As scary as a drop like this seems, it’s a good thing for the vast majority of us. For people who are retired and living off of their investments, or those who need to sell them for one reason or another, a huge dive like this really bad news. Hopefully, those people invest more conservatively than I do. Whenever the market takes a dive, my portfolio seems to get punished twice as much as the rest of the market. That’s probably due to the fact that I tend to invest in either less known or less popular stocks that institutional investors would want to distance themselves from at the first sign of trouble. Losing a bunch of money by investing in the same thing that everyone else did, is one thing. Losing a bunch of money in some stock nobody’s heard of is something else. Fund managers buying into Microsoft at the end of 1999 had plenty of company. Those who loaded up on Gigamedia like I did last week might face some tougher questions.

As usual, there are some cooler heads at the Motley Fool. For the majority of us, a drop in prices is a good thing. That’s because most of us who invest plan to be net buyers in the near to mid-term future and when we’re buying, we want prices to be low. It’s only for those who chose to, or, due to excessive margin debt, are forced to sell now, that low prices are a bad thing. There’s an old Chinese chengyu related to this situation.

杞人憂天

Literally, 杞人 just means a person from the ancient country of and 憂天 means worry (about) the sky. This phrase comes from an old story about a man from Qǐ who often spent time sitting by himself considering all manner of problems. One day, he considered that the sky might collapse some day. The more he thought about it, the more worried he became. Realizing that everyone, good people along with bad would certainly be crushed by the sky when it collapsed, his spirits continued to sink. It disrupted his sleeping and eating and in the end, he worried himself to death. Ever after, “Qǐ man worrying about the sky” has been a short phrase associated with needless and possibly self-destructive worrying.

In the case of stock investing, selling out of everything after a sharp drop in prices is about as self destructive as it gets. A more logical position is that of Warren Buffet’s old mentor Benjamin Graham- be greedy when others are fearful. He should know, considering he made his fortune by buying stocks during the great crash early last century and then literally writing the book about value investing. The way I see it, whatever stocks I thought were good purchases three days ago are now even better purchases.

Right now, most of my portfolio is worth less than what it was in June, and most of the companies should be worth a bit more, since they’ve continued to grow. Considering the 15% plus dive in 盛大 prices, I was strongly tempted to buy more. It’s done so well since I bought it the last time the sky was falling that it represents a huge chunk of my portfolio, though. Buffalo Wings has dropped a bit, but it still isn’t what I would call cheap. Harris and Harris, Gigamedia, and Middlebury to a lesser extent, look awfully cheap, though. Other stocks I’ve been looking at also offer some bargains. A couple of Chinese power companies developing green power, Huaneng Power and Suntech Power, both look intriguing, as does online real estate company Loopnet. With this many bargains around, I’m very, very glad that I’ve been working so hard to keep a low margin balance and allow myself so much room for days like this.

In the end, I decided to make three investments.

1) Panera Bread- My investment choices continue to reveal my love of food. Fortunately, it’s a pretty safe bet that Americans will continue dining out in greater and greater numbers. Like Chipotle, Panera has an experienced, successful leader at the helm, is in the midst of regional expansion, and offers high quality, fresh, yummy stuff. Unlike Chipotle, Panera has hit a couple of set-backs in terms of meeting estimated EPS, and its price reflects that. I bought 50 shares at $40.47.

2) Panacos Pharmaceuticals- They’ve got a promising HIV treatment that’s making it’s way through phase 2b trials. It works on a different pathway than existing treatments, and it’s showing effectiveness on people who have already been given other treatments. The risk on this investment is extreme, but so is the upside. I bought 600 shares at $3.23.

3) Gigamedia- I did a thorough analysis of Gigamedia last week. With absolutely no new news, its price is down by nearly 20%. Buying the exact same good for way less than I was willing to buy it for two days ago is a no-brainer. I bought 175 more shares at $10.96.

Legal Disclaimer: All of the information in this article is accurate to the best of my knowledge. However, I make no guarantee about the accuracy of anything written above. I’m not responsible for any mis-typings, or any other errors in the information. If you purchase any stock solely because I did, you do so at your own risk.

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9 Responses to “The Sky is Falling!”

  1. 1 Mu Says:

    Hey,

    Aha, another TMFer. :)

    Couldn’t agree more - though any old person relying on capital growth for their old age ‘income’ is frankly bonkers. Why hold yourself hostage to the market needlessly when so many income-generating assets exist… still, you can’t save people from themselves.

    I too have been greatly enjoying the falls of the last week despite not having any free cash. Knowing, (as you say yourself) that as more cash becomes available, I’ll just be able to get even better discounts. But most of all, I love to watch the headless chickens of the media running around, pushing popular sentiment in new and fun directions.

    I also continually find it amazing that people think a drop in price at McDonalds is wonderful, yet a drop in price at their stockbrokers is terrible. Still, there’s no accounting for irrationality.

    Mu

  2. 2 battlepanda Says:

    It’s an interesting couple of weeks to observe. I read the newspapers every day as well as some magazines (it’s a part of my job) and they do an amazing job of conveying inevitability — why the stockmarket is on the way up, look, here are some analysts saying how much room its got to grow and how “you won’t be the last rat on the ship.”

    And when the drop happened, you’ve got sensationalist “the sky is falling” type coverage such as a memorable Apple daily front pager illustration of a a rollercoaster on an almost vertical downward fall with Taiwan, the US, and all the other countries whose stock fell on it. No acknowledgement whatsoever of the fact that their previous coverage and analysis spectacularly failed to pan out.

  3. 3 Mark Says:

    Yes, Mu. I’ve been a big fan of the Motley Fool ever since I was reading the original Rule Breaker portfolio in the late nineties. Other than a few skills that have carried over from my old poker playing days, just about everything I know about investing comes from what I’ve read on their site and what I’ve read in books recommended on it.

    I guess it should come as a surprise that some of the same stuff I analyze here later ends up making it into their portfolios (such as Baidu), or that I often take a close look at companies that make to the top of their “wisdom of the crowds” CAPS heap (like Gigamedia). TMF is the only online investing service that I trust, and that’s worth quite a bit.

  4. 4 Mark Says:

    Battlepanda, I enjoyed your recent post on the Apple Daily’s HDR edited photography. I wish I’d gotten a hold of a copy of that roller-coaster one for posterity. Oh, well.

    If you actually bought into their hype, you’d be buying near the top, and then selling it all off at the worst possible time after being panicked by their next piece. Apple, apple, APPLE, apple…

  5. 5 battlepanda Says:

    Just to be clear, I wasn’t just talking about apple…it’s pretty much the whole media, including supposedly “quality” outlets like Business Weekly.

  6. 6 Shaun Says:

    I’m glad to see my breakfast purchases (at Panera) going to a good cause. ;)

  7. 7 InvestorBlogger Says:

    I hope you exited Gigamedia otherwise yo’d have been treading water for the last 14 months… Did you exit all of these positions?

  8. 8 Mark Says:

    All of my stock trades (except my IRA) are posted to this site. I’ve sold the other two stocks due to what I believed to be worsening business conditions for Panera and disappointing results for Panacos.

    At least based upon my analysis, Gigamedia is a significantly better buy now than it was when I bought it. If I had the money over the past year, I would have added significantly to my investment. I don’t generally try to time the market. When a good company is on sale, I buy. After that, as long as the business remains strong, I’m very patient.

  9. 9 Presenting Annualized Returns | Doubting to shuo: Chinese, Investing, EFL and Being a Geek in Taiwan Says:

    [...] Investor Blogger pointed out, I’ve been “treading water”. It’s true. The Toshuo Portfolio has fallen by [...]

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